I’ve scrupulously avoided politics on this blog for some years now, as any post of political persuasion seems to ignite passion and lead to endless discussion. Well, I’ve kept my mouth shut for long enough during these nightmarish months and I want to say a few things that are probably obvious to anyone who reads this blog (I can’t imagine any Trump supporters finding anything of interest here).

I’m just stupefied that even 40% of Americans support this ugly, aggressive, lying bully. I have always liked (maybe “loved” is too strong a word) Americans. I’ve been in 45 states, made the 3000 mile cross-country trip by auto six times, and have had continuously wonderful experiences with Americans from coast-to-coast. Truck drivers, farmers, waitresses, gas station attendants, cops (yes — a bunch of them), store keepers, people-in-the-street, invariably friendly and helpful.

I just don’t understand how any Americans can support Trump. How can anyone look at him and not be repulsed?

Bill Maher had a wonderful program this week. He interviewed Pres. Obama at the White House, who was relaxed, insightful, and humorous. Graceful. I’m proud of him. Bill was passionate this time around. His opening remarks were carefully crafted and perceptive. Chris Christie as attorney general, Rudy Giuliani as head of the FBI… there wasn’t much comedy in this episode.

Will Syria’s President Assad still be in power at the end of next year?  Will Russia and China hold joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean in the next six months?  Will the Oil Volatility Index fall below 25 in 2016?  Will the Arctic sea ice mass be lower next summer than it was last summer?

Five hundred such questions of geopolitical import were posed in tournament mode to thousands of amateur forecasters by IARPA—the Inatelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity–between 2011 and 2015.  (Tetlock mentioned that senior US intelligence officials opposed the project, but younger-generation staff were able to push it through.)  Extremely careful score was kept, and before long the most adept amateur “superforecasters” were doing 30 percent better than professional intelligence officers with access to classified information.  They were also better than prediction markets and drastically better than famous pundits and politicians, who Tetlock described as engaging in deliberately vague “ideological kabuki dance.”

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A lot of young people who visit our half-acre compound are inspired by what we’ve got going here. Handmade home, garden, chickens, workshop, office/work studio. How can they get something like this going, they want to know.

Well, it was sure easier 40 years ago. Our land was $6500, building permit $200, I drew up my own plans, was my own architect and engineer, building and health department officials were reasonable, there was no coastal commission…

Since then, the bureaucrats have weighted things heavily in their own favor (bureaucrats beget ever more bureaucracy) and building permits in Marin County (Calif.) are something like $50,000 (more than my entire house cost). Building and health departments do not get their funding from the county, but from fees paid by homeowners (or builders), so guess what? Fees are ever higher, now to the point of absurdity. Regulations also have grown to have their absurdities (having to install sprinklers in single family homes is one such absurd requirement). And to the point of it being just about impossible for an owner-builder without a trust fund to build around here now.

So I tell young people, if they’re looking for land to build upon, they have to get a couple of hours away from any of our great cities.

Tomorrow, I’ll post a few ideas of what I might do now were I starting nowadays. It’s a challenge!

Amidst the wonders and beauty of this part of the world, I find a fierce battle raging between concerned residents and corporate chemical/poison interests. There are 2 sides to the controversy, I’ve learned. I asked Wayne Jacintho, a Kauai photographer, who are the people against the GMO/poison folks; he replied: “Everybody who cares about people and creatures that are being poisoned, everybody who cares about clean water and air and soil and the ocean…”

On the other side are the chemical companies, and locals who need jobs.

Here is a letter written by Wayne this summer to a local paper in southwest Kauai:

FEEDING THE WORLD
In Aug. 3rd’s Garden Island, yet another letter proclaiming the chemical companies’ noble reason for existence: feeding the world.
And the heartrending revelation, by a Dow Chemical testifier the night of July 31st, that they, in conjunction with Bill & Melinda Gates, are developing a drought-resistant sorghum for some African country or countries. Yay!

Then, unwanted, unbidden questions arose, extinguishing the thumping koom-bah-yah in my heart. 
I ask that gentleman to answer these questions, if only to restore the almost unbearable lightness I felt upon first hearing his stirring words:

1. Will these sorghum seeds be given, or will they be sold, to these people?

2. Will these plants at maturity have viable seeds, or will a ‘terminator’ gene have shut them down?

3. If the resultant seeds are viable, will those farmers be able to save some for replanting, or will they be punished if they try to do so?

4. If these farmers are not allowed to save and replant “their” seeds, will they have to buy each year’s seed from you?

5. Can these seeds be grown without special needs, or do these farmers have to buy Dow Chemical herbicide, pesticide, and synthetic fertilizers for which these seeds may have been “engineered”?

6. If these farmers have to buy these seeds, (and, if necessary, other Dow chemicals), and if there are unforseen disasters, natural or otherwise, and they then fall into debt to Dow Chemical, what will be the fate of these farmers and their lands?

Please answer straightforwardly, with source references.

Naturally, Wayne never got an answer.

See my post here of 2 months ago: https://www.lloydkahn.com/?s=roundup